Wednesday, July 23

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee (57-43) at St. Louis (57-45)

The Brewers trot out recently acquired left hander CC Sabathia (9-8, 3.51 ERA) in the third game of a four-game series against the N.L. Central Division rival Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee, which beat St. Louis 4-3 on Tuesday, has won six straight games (including five in a row on the road) and is on further runs of 13-3 against winning teams and 15-4 in division play.

St. Louis, which will counter with right-hander Braden Looper (9-7, 4.60), had won five straight games before dropping the first two of this series. The Cards are 0-5 in Looper's last five starts against winning teams.

The Brewers have won six of their last seven against St. Louis, including four in a row.

Since being traded from Cleveland earlier this month, Sabathia has been sterling, winning all three starts, pitching two consecutive complete games and posting a 1.88 ERA in 24 innings. In a 9-1 win at San Francisco on Friday, he allowed just four hits (one solo homer) in going the distance. Sabathia has gone at least seven innings in 12 of his last 14 starts, with four complete games.

The Cardinals are 3-3 in Looper's last six starts, but he's gone 1-2 with three no-decisions in that stretch, lasting just three innings Friday after allowing six runs on eight hits in the Cardinals' 11-7 win over San Diego.

Sabathia is 2-4 with a 3.20 ERA in eight road starts this season, and he's 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis. Looper, meanwhile, is 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA in 11 home starts this year and is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 31 appearances (five starts) against Milwaukee.

The over is on an 8-3 tear for Milwaukee and has cashed in four of its last six on the highway. But the under for St. Louis is on runs of 6-0 against winning teams and 5-1 against left-handers, and the under is 7-3-1 in 11 meetings this season between these two teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE

Chicago (58-42) at Arizona (50-50)

The Cubs, with the best record in the National League, will give the ball to southpaw Ted Lilly (9-6, 4.49 ERA) as they try to avoid a three-game sweep against the N.L. West-leading Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Chicago, which dropped the series opener 2-0 Monday and got belted 9-2 Tuesday, has lost five of its last six and is in a 5-13 funk in its last 18 road games.

Arizona, which will send lefthander Doug Davis (3-4, 4.14) to the mound, is just 10-23 in its last 33 games against teams with a winning record. But the Diamondbacks have had the Cubs' number, going 27-7 in the last 34 home games against Chicago and 18-8 in the last 26 clashes overall.

The Cubs have lost in each Lilly's last three starts, after winning five in a row behind the 32-year-old. On Friday, Lilly got a no-decision, allowing just one run on six hits in seven innings, but getting no help offensively in a 2-1 loss at Houston.

The D-Backs have also lost three in a row behind Davis, who is 1-1 with five no-decisions in his last seven starts. He lasted just three innings Friday against the Dodgers, giving up five runs on five hits in an 8-7 home loss.

Lilly is 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he's 1-2 with a 2.74 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Arizona. Davis is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA in seven home outings this year, and he's 7-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 13 career starts against Chicago.

The under is 38-17-3 for the Cubs in their last 58 games as a chalk, and the total has stayed low in four of Davis' last five home starts for Arizona. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on a 7-2 spree at Chase Field and is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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